Drop Outs, Victories and Defeats: Super Tuesday is Shaping up to be Unpredictable

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Bernie Sanders, the progressive senator from Vermont, earned a huge upset after his staggering win in Nevada of 46% against Biden’s 20%, cementing his front-runner status.  

Biden struck back with equal awe in the first southern primary of South Carolina, which returned a near opposite result. 

Meanwhile, former South Bend Mayor, Pete Buttigieg, once hailed as a potential party favourite, failed to capitalise on his success in Iowa and New Hampshire and was forced to cease his campaign. 

This calls into question the fates of other campaigns during Super Tuesday as Mayor Pete’s supporters flock elsewhere. 

Current polling has not come to a consensus but Biden’s campaign will likely gain a much-needed boost in California and Texas where Sanders hopes to do well. 

In states, like California where Sanders was potentially the only person who could win any delegates, all could change and lead to a closer convention as other candidates surpass the 15% threshold. 

Elizabeth Warren, another progressive senator from Massachusetts, has failed to make any major headway and lags fourth nationally. 

Most of her hopes lie in influencing the convention by winning her home state and picking up delegates as the campaign continues. 

The centrists are now more united but without reliably knowing how voters will realign, one pundit’s prediction on Super Tuesday is as good as the next person’s. 

We also have no prior indication of how billionaire and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg will perform, although his presence is a potential hazard to the Biden camp. 

One draw from all of this is that candidates who were not viable for delegates before are now more likely to make gains which could make it harder for Sanders or Biden to win an outright majority before the convention. 

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